Peace With Russia: Why Is It A Dangerous Strategy?
Ukraine this, Ukraine that: It’s now been close 8 months since Russia first deployed its forces on Ukrainian ground, and peace talks are resurfacing in the media. Is it the right thing to do in the interests of all parties?
Ukraine carries a long story of struggle of independence. First under the Soviet Union (Ukraine was the main Oblast (=administrative region) for the USSR in terms of agriculture due to its rich soil), and now, Ukraine finds its regions threatened again, just like Crimea in 2014. Ukrainian independence was never of Moscow’s liking, already under the USSR: Around a century ago, Ukraine tried to remind independent, before the Union’s forces subjugated the land of sunflowers to the Soviets. Ukrainians however kept a rather distant and cautious relationship with Moscow (which eventually led to Stalin causing a mass starvation in retaliation).
There’s a similar idea of mass destruction that has been used as a bargaining strategy by Vladimir Putin in 2022, a comparable most tend to forget. By March and April (that is, one/two months after the official beginning of the war), hospitals were destroyed at will in Kyiv and Mariupol (the latter experience a siege by Russian forces, even blocking hman corridors as the Ukrainian government attempted to send now-trapped victims into safer grounds). This, by the way, is a breach of the Third Article of the 1949 Geneva Convention, that goes against mass murder/rape on the basis of a group’s common characteristic, as Russian forces raped/murdered and continuously hurt innocent civilians.
A culminating point of Russia’s bigotry probably is the infamous declaration of annexation by Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin, securing ‘Four Oblasts’ — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Martial law since then has been declared in all four ‘oblasts’, allowing Putin’s hand to affect à la dictatorship the said regions in any way he wishes — a dangerous and worrying measure for Ukraine and the west. Since the said culminating point, reports claim Russia is ready to make peace. A infamous wish, as pointed out by many.
The last time the West made peace with Russia, Crimea remained under Russian control.
Interestingly enough, more and more high-profile celebrities have come out requesting for Ukraine to accept Russia’s bid. Among them, the Pope Francis himself, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Elon Musk. Financial interest claims ending the so-called Ukrainian War would be best for all parties involved. That is, not only a treason against the sovereignty of Ukraine, but that is also shaking hands with fascism, more than ever.
Russia’s in deep trouble, and the World knows it — as much as Putin tries to hide it with the ‘Z’ movement and infamous rallies — like the May 9th one. In numbers, on paper, Russia’s military should’ve annihilated Ukrainian forces with ease. Its military power is supposedly of great numbers, as its past form — the USSR — held great focus until Brezhnev on military development above all in the world of the Cold War.
Today’s Russia, however, is different. Ukraine resisted in a similar way Vietnam resisted fifty years ago to U.S forces in the Northern regions of the country: Guerilla warfare. The U.S, just like modern-day Russia, are not to be defeated in a regular, army against army scenario. Their technological and numerical edge would always translate into instant victory against anyone.
There however is a new aspect the U.S learned from Vietnam: Knowledge of the lands can overturn war tides. To the general surprise, Putin’s forces precisely experienced this experience within a few months. Russia’s forces were at first rather younger recruits, some not even militarily trained — part of the equivalent of the Iran’s “Morality Police” — these aren’t trained soldiers, they’re the equivalent of policemen with weapon-based advantage — their job is to arrest, above all. When they arrived to Ukrainian grounds, they expected locals to surrender. They instead found proud Ukrainian, ready to die for the blood. Russians lost much of its tank stock in these operations, as these would often get trapped in a combination of a lack of recharge — and furthermore, a muddy soil that wouldn’t allow tanks to advance further.
In turn, Ukraine continued fighting. A major, unexpected event was perhaps Zelenskyy’s insistence on staying on the ground in Kyiv as the city was victim of regular Russian missiles — despite being offered, like other ambassadors, to flee. The intimidation did not get to his neck, to the general surprise. Thought of someone as rather unserious — for his past as a clown — literally, he’s sown more maturity than expected, often visiting local soldiers as well. Still, his insistence on NATO’s help & armed reinforcement from the EU and Western powers put leading superpowers in a rather uncomfortable situation — for nobody wants an open war with Russia.
Ukraine hasn’t won the war, despite it has regained ground former claimed by Russia forces. With eventual military equipment coming from the EU — Poland being one of the first actors with Slovaks — as Scholz’s Germany preferred neutrality status — despite eventually sending a few in Ukraine’s direction. Even in the U.S, there were doubts in the House and the Senate — is the financial loss with regards to sent equipment in American interests? As the sight of a possible WWIII has started — whether one likes to admit it or not, the Ukrainian War is symbol of rising tensions, and arguably, has started a WWIII — despite it might not look like previous world wars.
So what is Russia, really, in October 2022? What’s this opponent Ukraine are dealing with?
It’s somewhat of a decayed superpower. With the right economical and industrial reforms, Russia can quickly reach development the USSR showed infrastructure was capable of. But today, it isn’t as much of a strictly, industrially military power. Why? Because it depends on much.
Its train infrastructure is horrific. Equipment supplied to troops isn’t too far off, on an industrial level, to previous equipment supplied a century ago. With the right reforms, it can go back to a superpower — but today, it needs much more in order to fit the definition of superpower.
But its also a mastermind. ‘Vlad’ might have led Russia onto dangerous grounds, as he’s only experienced short-term wars. What he intended was a psyops(Short for psychological operations) — in short, win through psychology territorial grounds. That’s how he’s won grounds in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and intended to in the four oblasts this year. A common characteristic is the man-to-man ratio, as well as clashes that only lasted a few trimesters at most. As such, strategical military warfare was of secondary importance. The problem, and that is what condemned Putin, is that Ukraine, specifically Kyiv, is not exactly of the same skin as his previous victims.
Putin reigns with fear. The USSR reigned with fear, too. A coincidence? Probably not, being himself under the order of the KGB — the equivalent of the Soviet CIA at the time — which explains his expertise in psyops, too.
Putin is hungry. How much more can he force the West into his demands? Russians are aware the West, through pipelines — are dependent of his gas. They’ll pay for the gas. Ex-soviet countries, like Bulgaria, were ready to give in Putin’s new demands — pay the gas in rubles — before it was stopped by the EU’s demands — do not fall prey to his demands. And when the pipelines gets sabotaged — as it recently did — there’s worries for European suffering a ‘cold winter’.
With fear, Putin– whether sabotaged or not — intended to force the West to comply with his demands. You will note that his annexation came precisely a week after reported leaks in the Nord Stream — a quite suspicious timeline, isn’t it?
That the West worried on gas shortage following Russian retaliations is not news of yesterday — Angela Merkel often warned against it, despite never managing the end goal — prioritizing ‘peace’ and finance above all. Olaf Scholz, however, has pumped more gas than ever into German lands — despite openly ‘condemning’ Russia’s so-called terrorism. The West is in a war with its best industrial aid — besides China, who, morally, are far from a partner of confidence (a topic for another time).
Russia, just like the USSR, has repeatedly denied independence to Ukraine. It has stomped over its sovereignty, by treating it as an Oblast — a term it has also reserved under Stalin to describe Ukraine. It has widely continued to commit war crimes that go against the Geneva Convention. The issue, however, is that this does not make the West ‘The Good Guys’. As noted, Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly requested Ukraine give in — a preference notably of fascism, economical authoritarianism above political and cultural sovereignty — from one of the leaders of the so-called ‘Eurocentric movement’.
If Europeans and Western ought to hit Russia, now is the time, more than ever. For Russia is weaker, relying on foreign soldiers as native Russians flee the country — some to Finland, others to other parts of the World — in order to avoid to be drafted. Putin’s idea of a nationalistic and populist Russia is far from the common consensus — which explains why a majority of the soldiers in the hospital of Rostov had names beginning with Mohammed — an Arab name, as you’ll not. Russia so far has always sent immigrants and political prisoners that can be easily manipulated — Fight for Us, and you’ll be granted citizenship and freedom in the country — without any real accounts of the state of the War, as free media is not available in Russia.
If Westerners were to read into peace-making with fascists populists, they would know what happened when it was attempted with Adolf Hitler and Mussolini — a certain World War broke out, with the Czech Republic being the sacrifice — just as Ukraine is still see as a buffer state for many Westerners. If dignity and sovereignty is of European and Western Values — the question shouldn’t be a doubt: There shall be peace once Ukraine recovers its lands — and more harmful sanctions are imposed on Russians soil — Sanctions, that, like in Iran — have hurt the middle-class workers instead of the rich oligarch and politician in power that is supposedly targeted. Now, more than ever, the West needs to united, holds firm ground and clear its wishes for the future — Ukraine won’t win the war — for the aid is insufficient, as much as they’ve managed to push back Russian forces.
Whether the West prefers to come out as a deciding factor or remain witnesses to another genocide is of their choice.
